Five seats that explain the 2024 election results
The Conservative Party faced a record defeat, but warning signs for the incoming Labour Government emerged
The results of yesterday’s General Election seem extraordinary enough at first glance — the Conservatives reduced to their worst result in the party’s history, Labour jumping from catastrophe to landslide victory in less than five years, and triumphs of various scales for the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Reform UK. Look closer and there are even more fascinating discoveries — success for various pro-Gaza independents, over 100 Reform candidates coming second in their constituencies, and a Labour Party more than doubling its seat count despite getting less raw votes than they did in 2019. It’s a fascinating, muddled portrait of the UK, and below are five seats that capture the singular dynamics of what just unfolded.
North West Cambridgeshire
One of the most stunning Conservative defeats last night arrived in North West Cambridgeshire, where 22-year-old Sam Carling overturned a 25,000+ Conservative majority to join 410 other Labour MPs in the House of Commons. The result was made possible more so by the collapse of the Tory vote than by the relatively modest increase in the Labour vote. Winning with just 33.3% of the vote, Carling benefitted from prevailing trends that helped many of his new colleagues get over the line — tactical voting from others on the political left and centre and a right-wing vote split between Conservatives and Reform UK.
Leicester South
Before last night, an independent candidate had not won a seat in England at a General Election since 2005. Last night, four of them did just that, and many others came close. All four ran on pro-Gaza platforms, winning over large numbers of Muslim voters while arguing that the Labour Party had been insufficient in showing solidarity with Palestinians. Some, like the triumphant former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, ran relatively straightforward, left-wing campaigns. However, many other campaigns were marked by ugly sectarianism, intimidation, sexism and homophobia — particularly in Birmingham, where Labour MPs Jess Phillips and Shabana Mahmood faced a tirade of abuse and only narrowly held on. The most shocking independent win came in Leicester South, where Labour frontbencher and rising star Jonathan Ashworth narrowly lost to Shockat Adam. The result was a wider symptom of the growing disconnect between Muslims and the Labour Party — a sign that even as Labour enjoyed a landslide victory, their coalition remained fractured.
Maidenhead
Up until seven weeks ago, Maidenhead was represented by former Prime Minister Theresa May and was considered one of the safest Tory seats in the country. Now, it is represented by Liberal Democrat Joshua Reynolds, who has joined another 70 members of his party in the House of Commons. The Liberal Democrats earned their best-ever result on Thursday — an extraordinary turnaround for a party that elected less than a dozen MPs five years ago. However, the Lib Dems have achieved this remarkable feat on an almost identical vote share as what they earned in 2019. Seats like Maidenhead show how such a dynamic is possible — the Lib Dems increased the efficiency of their vote share massively; ruthlessly targeting a select number of seats, primarily in the South of England. It was a strategy that bore fruit for bungee jumping party leader Ed Davey, who saw his party win all but one of the seats on their target list.
Llanelli
One of the major stories of Thursday night was the revolutionary result for Nigel Farage’s populist right-wing outfit Reform UK, which earned over 4 million votes. With such votes ineffectively spread out across Britain, the party enters Parliament with a measly five MPs — albeit a group made up of numerous high-profile figures. Rightly, much has been made of the devastating impact of Reform’s rise on the Conservative Party, but the Party’s success should also strike fear into the hearts of Labour MPs across the country. In 93 Labour seats, Reform came second (by comparison, only 10 Conservative seats saw Reform as runners-up). Most of these were in working-class, traditional Labour areas that were previously receptive to Boris Johnson’s populist right-wing message in 2019 and voted for Brexit in 2016. In Llanelli, a Labour heartland in South Wales, the right-wing newcomers shocked observers by coming within just 1,504 votes of taking down former Shadow Cabinet member Dame Nia Griffith. If Labour doesn’t address the dissatisfaction they face, they could prove further vulnerable in areas like this come 2029 (and, in the next Welsh Senedd elections in 2026).
Paisley and Renfrewshire South
In 2015, Labour was reduced from 41 seats to 1 North of the Border — nearly obliterated by the pro-independence SNP, then led by Nicola Sturgeon. Last night, they comfortably returned as the majority party in Scotland, as the SNP were reduced to just 9 seats. The result, which was equally indicative of growing Labour strength and discontent with the devolved SNP government, was best captured in Paisley and Renfrewshire South. In 2015, the once-safe Labour seat gave the clearest encapsulation of Scotland’s changing electoral landscape. Then, former Labour cabinet minister Douglas Alexander lost to 20-year-old Mhairi Black on a 26.9% swing. Last night, Labour took the seat back on a 15.4% swing, while Alexander became an MP once more via the Lothian East seat.
