How Even A Small Polling Error Could Transform The Election

Maybe this race won’t be so close after all

If polls are exactly right, Kamala Harris will become President-elect tonight. But they would have to be *exactly* right because the margin separating Harris and Trump in the likely-pivotal state of Pennsylvania is 0.2% (according to poll averages). No pollster claims to be that accurate, and thus there’s no other way to describe this election other than ‘toss-up’.

But as I wrote about last month, the polls being close doesn’t necessarily mean the election will actually be close. Standard polls have a margin of error of +/- 3% for each candidate — meaning a poll showing both candidates deadlocked at 50% is actually saying that both candidates support ranges from 47%-53%. So a tied poll has a margin of error that ranges from a 6% victory for Trump, or vice versa for Harris. So, here’s how different polling errors would impact the overall result today:

If polls are exactly right:

If polls are exactly correct, Kamala Harris would barely eek out a victory by a margin of 270–268 in the electoral college — with the…