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The Polls Are Probably Wrong — That Might Be Good News For Kamala Harris
There’s more uncertainty than ever heading into next Tuesday’s vote
3.9%, 1.9% and 3.2%. That is the margin by which national polls were wrong in the past three Presidential elections. Here’s another three numbers for you: 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.6%. Those are the margins separating Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the three crucial, likely election-deciding states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Anecdotally, those numbers seem to be causing Democrats more distress than Republicans. It’s no surprise — the last two times Trump was on the ballot, polls suggested a clear win for Democrats when the final result was actually a shock loss and a (statistically, even more shocking) close run with a repeat of the same outcome.
This time round, there’s real reason to believe the polls might be even less reliable than they have been in previous cycles. But, fear not Democrats — there’s every reason to believe this time round that polls may actually be underestimating Democrats. So, with eight days left until election day, let’s look at why the polls may be off this time round and why they could conceivably be underestimating either Harris or Trump.
