What To Expect From Tonight’s Democratic Debate

>> What can we expect from the main candidates on stage? <<

Joe Biden

The former VP clearly has a strong base of moderate supporters and, he has set the bar relatively low for his performance tonight, meaning that it will be hard for him to do badly enough that he loses significant amounts of support. Nevertheless, with Warren threatening his front-runner status he may be banking on her having a less-than-stellar performance in order to maintain his edge.

Elizabeth Warren

Warren has not faced serious criticism in previous debates, but this may very well change tonight, with the Massachusetts senator currently catching up with Biden in nationwide polls, while leading polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. Moreover, Tulsi Gabbard, having recently called Warren ‘not ready’ to be Commander-In-Chief will likely go after the senator. With Gabbard having landed an effective on Kamala Harris previously, Warren will need to be ready to defend her record and, should have done some serious opposition research on Gabbard in the run up to tonight.

Bernie Sanders

This is the Vermont Senator’s first public appearance since his heart attack and he will be eager to show voters that he, is in fact, fit for office. Sanders started to differentiate himself from Warren in interviews before this debate — a sign that the the alleged non-aggression pact between the two may be over. Indeed, if he wants to improve his stagnant poll numbers he’ll need to win over a lot of progressives who are currently on team Warren.

Kamala Harris

When Harris entered this primary she was already being anointed front-runner status by pundits and analysts alike, and when she powerfully attacked Biden’s record in the first debate it seemed as though people may have been right to set the bar high for the California senator. Yet, with Harris lingering in 4th to 5th place in recent polls, she needs a breakout moment — and soon — if she wants to stay competitive in this race. Harris will likely make a concerted effort to have a viral, headline-worthy moment tonight — but will it work?

Pete Buttigieg

Buttigieg has had three good debate performances to date, but has still been largely unable to shift his poll numbers — which currently sit at around 5%. Buttigieg had a powerful moment in the last debate when he talked about serving in the military under Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, and another moment like this could make voters give his candidacy a second look. Buttigieg — who has pivoted to the centre in recent weeks — may be looking to compete on Biden’s territory this time round and, having — just days ago — been attacked on social media by Beto O’Rourke, Kamala Harris and, Cory Booker (and ‘AOC’), he may be targeted by many a candidate tonight, not least Harris. Why? Because, Harris; has already attacked Biden, may be weary to attack someone as popular with her own supporters as Warren and, has seen how ineffective attacks on Sanders by other candidates has been so far. Therefore, Buttigieg — who attracts some of the same sorts of voters (well-educated, socially liberal) as Harris — may be a natural target for her.

Others

Cory Booker and Andrew Yang

Cory Booker and Andrew Yang have already made the next debate, but will be looking to perform well tonight to improve their support, so that they can stay in the race all the way to Iowa and beyond. The main question for Yang is whether his unconventional, UBI platform can attract more than the 3% of Democratic voters who currently plan to support him.

Beto O’Rourke and Amy Klobuchar

Beto O’Rourke and Amy Klobuchar are both in weaker positions than they were when they announced their candidacies and both have significant progress they need to make to qualify for the next debate. O’Rourke — despite not having seen significant polling improvement after the last debate — may be able to edge up his support just enough to get into the November debates if he has another viral moment.

Meanwhile, Klobuchar did well last time running on an unapologetically pragmatic platform and, should seek to win moderate voters who are increasingly worried about Biden’s electability. More than anything else, Klobuchar NEEDS to bring up how she won Minnesota by 24 points in 2018, while Trump nearly won it in 2016. If she can convince voters she’s electable and moderate, she may be able to take significant support away from Biden.

Julian Castro and Tulsi Gabbard

Julian Castro and Tulsi Gabbard are both long-shots to make the next debate and even a standout moment may not be enough to get them into said debates, with less than 6% of Democrats considering voting for either candidate pre-debate. That being said, the only way is up for both of them and a standout moment — while possibly not being enough for either of them — is their only real hope of getting anywhere in this process.

Tom Steyer

Tom Steyer will be taking the debate stage for the first time in this primary. He is polling below 1% nationwide, but through heavy ad spending in early states, has managed to poll sufficiently high in Iowa and New Hampshire to make tonight’s stage. The billionaire — known for running ‘Need to Impeach’, an organisation that likely served from 2017 onwards as a front for his then-future campaign — will likely stress his long running support for impeachment, but it’s unclear how successful this will be, considering that if Steyer did become President, he would’ve already beaten Trump, making impeachment a non-issue.