Why Elizabeth Warren Might Be The Most Electable Democrat
Does Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren — whose rising in the polls — have the best shot at beating the President?
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Every presidential candidate gears the launch of their candidacy towards one goal — achieving a ‘post-launch bump’; through improved polling numbers and strong fundraising. In this cycle alone, many candidates have been able to achieve this; Joe Biden did, Kamala Harris did and, so did Bernie Sanders. Elizabeth Warren did not.
Warren was dogged by questions surrounding supposed Native American ancestry, meanwhile, her decision to court big financial donors caused fears that she would not have enough money to run a competitive campaign; as a result, her finance director left her team.
Her campaign felt like it was over, even though, in reality, it had barely begun. Her supporters feared that her financial decisions had made it impossible to raise significant funds; she wouldn’t be getting money from the richest donors like other candidates, but with progressive Bernie Sanders also running, they feared she would struggle to garner grassroots support.
Warren got in the race earlier than nearly every other candidate, yet for months her team watched as candidate after candidate got in the race and saw their polling improve. By May, many polls had her in sixth place, behind; Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and, Beto O’Rourke. It seemed as though the Senator who had been considered for years as a potential future President was going to be beaten by someone else.
Fast forward a few months and the Senator’s fortunes are better than ever; she has gained a loyal legion of supporters; attracted to her focus on detailed policy proposals over unsubstantiated rhetoric. The campaign have capitalised on this too; selling merchandise with the slogan “Warren has a plan for that”.
Meanwhile, Warren is the only top-tier candidate to have had two consistently good debate performances and, the focus on her ancestry controversy at the start of the campaign has meant that it’s barely come up since. While Biden and Harris had strong starts to their campaign, more recently they’ve been damaged by scandals from their past — whether it be Biden’s bussing history or Harris’ record as a prosecutor and AG. This is in stark contrast to the Massachusetts senator whose been successful recently in staying on message and, making Democrats view her campaign in an increasingly favourable light.
Warren is the only top-tier candidate to have had two consistently good debate performances
Meanwhile, despite being closely allied with progressive firebrand and fellow Presidential candidate, Bernie Sanders, she has been able to extend her support beyond those who voted for the aforementioned Vermont senator in 2016 by focusing more strongly on a message of social liberalism — seen through her focus on “addressing the black-white wealth gap”.
This strategy has worked well for her, with a recent Emerson poll showing her with roughly equal levels of support from both Sander’s and Clinton’s 2016 voters. Not to mention the fact that she has managed to turn around disappointing fundraising figures to garner over 420,000 individual donors (behind only Bernie Sanders) and, she raised the third highest amount of funds of any Democrat in the second quarter (behind only Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden).
Warren’s campaign — once dismissed as dead on arrival — has seen a slow and steady rise in the polls and, in many polls has now more than doubled her support since April from around 7% to 15%. All of this is to say that Warren’s primary strategy could also be highly effective if replicated in a General Election against Trump.
Discussions of ‘electability’ are usually about identity more than anything else and, many see the term as a code word used to dismiss candidates of color and women candidates. It’s not hard to see why; Biden — the candidate seen by most voters as being the most electable — has had two less than strong debate performances and is well known for being gaffe-prone. It’s more than likely that any female candidate with his performance on the campaign trail would be quickly dismissed from being seen as a serious contender to go up against Trump.
Discussions of ‘electability’ are usually about identity more than anything else and, many see the term as a code word used to dismiss candidates of color and women candidates
Yet, it is Joe Biden’s supposed electability and, Warren’s supposed lack thereof, that presents her greatest challenge in winning the primary — with a poll showing that she only becomes the first choice candidate of a plurality of Democrats when electability is discounted. Nevertheless, she might be a much stronger candidate against the President than many assume.
Many discussions regarding how to beat Trump focus on whether Democrats should follow one of two strategies: focusing on winning over Obama-Trump voters or, focusing on turning out ‘the base’ of core Democratic support. However, Warren might have shown she can do both; she has strong support among loyal Democrats — helped by her refusal to sacrifice her left wing bona fides. But her left-wing economic populism may be the best match to Trump’s right-wing populism, which helped him win over a critical number of disaffected Democrats in 2016. Indeed, when Warren spoke in rural West Virginia (nicknamed the “heart of MAGA country” by Politico) she received a standing ovation after a speech focused on the opioid crisis.
“Elizabeth Warren’s capacity to stay on message is brilliant, it is an art”. — Meghan McCain
Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren’s ability to gain momentum after a rocky start to her campaign and change the focus away from her controversies through running a highly disciplined campaign could offer the clearest road-map yet to Democrats about how to avoid letting Trump set the news cycle. Indeed, Warren’s ability to stay on message is unparalleled by the rest of the Democratic field. Indeed, Meghan McCain — an ideological adversary of the presidential candidate — said, “Elizabeth Warren’s capacity to stay on message is brilliant, it is an art”.
Moreover, the message that Warren has managed to stay focused on seems to resonate with voters, including those outside of the Democratic Party; most polls of the general public now show her with one of the highest (and often THE highest) net approval rating of the 2020 Democrats and, she’s one of a very limited number of politicians who have seen their favorability ratings rise ([1][2]) as their campaigns progressed.
This isn’t to say that we should assume that Elizabeth Warren would be a shoo-in against Trump — lots could change between now and November 2020 — and the nature of modern politics is so volatile that it is never appropriate to hold inflexible assumptions about a candidates viability. There are also warning signs regarding Warren’s ability to win over the people she needs to — for example, her +8 approval rating in her home state is lower than you’d expect of most Democrats in Massachusetts. Additionally, while she’s recently managed to escape focus on her ancestry scandal, Trump would undoubtedly try to use this against her in a head-to-head match-up and, Warren would need to find a way to dismiss these criticisms of herself.
The nature of modern politics is so volatile that it is never appropriate to hold inflexible assumptions about a candidates viability
But, no candidate has a perfectly clear path to the White House; any candidate who has significant political experience is going to have made political mistakes which will be used against them by their opponents. But, Warren’s ability to mostly avoid gaffes and stay on message should insulate her well against criticisms. While we can’t be sure how she’d fair in a general election, there’s probably more reasons to suspect her success than her failure.
